USCF EB and USCL
by Michael Aigner
Michael Aigner is a graduate student at
Stanford University, who serves on the USCF College Chess Committee and the USCL
Subcommittee of the USCF Computer and Internet Committee. His experience
in internet chess dates back to the American Internet Chess Server (AICS) in the
summer of 1994, and he has served as admin of FICS for over two years, USCL for
a few months, and currently for ICC. His public account name on all
these servers is "fpawn." He is a USCF Alternate Delegate for
Northern California, and has recently had a Master rating.
In the following post from the newsgroup
rec.games.chess.politics, Aigner responds to a post by USCF President Tim Redman
regarding US ChessLive.
_______________________________
Subject: USCF EB and USCL
Date: Wed, 30 May 2001 12:37:58 -0700
From: Michael Aigner <maigner@stanford.edu>
Newsgroups: rec.games.chess.politics
Dr. Redman's fairly concise summary of where the USCF Executive Board
stands on US Chess Live allows me to say a few things in response.
> There would be a budget impact statement, it
would be prepared exactly
> along the same lines as all the others, and I suspect that it would
be
> somewhere in the neighborhood of positive $100,000 (to eliminate
on-line
> play).
So the budget impact of eliminating the online service in the coming
year
would be a savings on the order of $100,000. Consequently, this
membership benefit is costing the USCF that much each year. This
ignores
the fact that the USCF was receiving a small profit out of the ICC deal
that expired last year.
> However. . . .
>
> Having our own on-line play is part of the strategic plan adopted by
> the current Board, but it is not a new idea. It has been called
for by
> previous Boards. The Barry Board made it the #1 priority of the
USCF
> about six years ago, but it was never implemented.
Fair enough. The Executive Board sees online play as an important
investment. Whether the timing of this, with the USCF in deep
financial
trouble, is right remains to be seen. Maybe "better late than
never" is
true here, but maybe not.
> The emergency USCF financial workshop held
in Parsippany in, I believe,
> February of 1999 called for on-line play as an important component of
a
> financial recovery plan.
OK, so the Executive Board had a vision. We can only judge
whether this
vision is misguided or not.
> The current Board believes that on-line play
should be a free benefit
> to USCF members. So far, 13,000 USCF members have registered.
The
> first step was to get the thing up and running without committing
> up-front financial resources (which we didn't have).
<note: Shawn Sullivan of GamesParlor says this number is closer to
15,000>
15,000 USCF members may have signed up. This number is strikingly
low
compared to the 90,000 or so members that the USCF has. Surely in
this
day and age, more than 15% has access to a computer and the internet.
Clearly the advertising campaign has failed. Moreover, ICC estimates
that
a similar number of USCF members are currently paying on their site (this
means they pay $40 for USCF and $49 for ICC if they are adults).
My real question, though, is where are these 15,000 members? The
peak
online numbers (number of users online at the same time) typically is in
the mid 200s. About 2300 accounts are active in blitz, which is the
most
common form of play. Since not all active members are active in
blitz, I
think it is safe to say that there are between 3000-4000 active members on
USCL. That's less than 5% of all USCF members. Considering how
much time
kids and college age adults spend on internet game servers (chess and
other games), I find this alarmingly low.
Another interesting tidbit. I have observed a trend among a few kids
that
I know. This will certainly make Daniel Sleator happy. These
kids were
not allowed to play on ICC in the past because of the payment issues.
But
now they were able to play for free on USCL and could demonstrate to their
parents that online servers are not just some gimmick. And guess
what,
these kids (four so far) now are paying ICC members! So it seems
that all
the advertising in Chess Life for USCL is indirectly benefitting ICC!
> The next step is to generate revenue from
it. We anticipate that
> revenue would come from several sources: 1) on-line prize
tournaments,
> 2) increase in retention/renewal rates, 3) an appeal to lapsed
members
> touting the enhanced value of USCF membership (more member benefits
at
> the same cost). Our initial attempt in that direction was not
> successful. 4) the introduction of a premium playing site
without
> advertising for an additional fee. 5) the increased
retention of
> scholastic members through their college and into their adult years.
> Young folks seem to have a special interest in on-line play.
Let me address each point separately:
1) The minute you start charging for tournaments, the attendance drops
dramatically. Even on ICC, where capitalism reigns, tournaments with
a
nominal entry fee of $5 or $10 tend to flop badly. Most recent
example:
Dos Hermanas.
2) Increasing retention/renewal rates is key. The question is: how?
3) Appealing to lapsed members is another key. For US Chess Live to
be
part of that appeal, the server needs to offer something of value that
exceeds what ICC offers. Currently, I see only lectures and prize
tournaments. These are only at specific times of the day/week.
If
someone can't attend at these hours, or has little interest in lectures or
blitz tournaments, or is worried about computer cheaters, then this has no
added value. On ICC, a person gets the services of a well-run server
that
has been around six years to work out the kinks. Casual tournaments
are
run all throughout the day. Major world chess events are broadcast
live,
often with GM commentary. And the cost? For adults, ICC costs
only $9
more for a year than USCF/USCL. (Note: this paragraph assumes that
all
members who lapsed did so because they prefer online play, which is
hardly true, although it certainly is a contributing factor.)
4) Again, the more cost, the less members. A premium site has to
offer
something that ICC can't for it to even dream of being successful, or else
even the "ICC costs more" argument fails. I have serious
doubts this site
will fly unless USCF and GamesParlor intends to directly compete with ICC.
5) I am very impressed to see someone of Dr. Redman's stature finally at
least mention the college chess factor! I have said all along that
the
key to success of USCL is attracting players in the 13-25 age group.
Those are the members most likely to have access to computers and who
generally spend a large percentage of their time online (playing quake or
chess or whatever). USCF has traditionally been extremely low key
about
targetting these members, which is why they slip away. Why can't the
USCF
retain its large base of scholastic members as they grow older? This
is
the million dollar question, on which perhaps USCF and USCL's very
survival depends.
I find it interesting that Dr. Redman doesn't mention advertising revenue
as a major factor here. Perhaps the powers that be have realized
that
this is not a real source of revenue until the number of people online
approaches 1000 or more, which it clearly hasn't yet.
> The general skittishness of some regarding
this new feature of USCF
> membership is in part due to this being an election year, but also in
> part to a seeming inability among some chessplayers to realize that
> although the amount of time between having an idea in chess and
putting
> it into practice is measured in seconds, in a real-world situation it
is
> measured in months and years.
Yes. ICC was not built overnight, but has been tweaked over the
past six
years to where it is now. If USCF and USCL can survive six years (or
even
until the end of the current two year deal until May 2003), then there's
hope. If...
> The new feature of USCF membership has only
been up and running since last
> August. Let's give it a chance and look at the numbers.
I have long stated that I want to see the USCF succeed. If USCF
can
create an online site alongside ICC, then so be it. The competition,
if
healthy and mutual, will help both sites and the chess playing public in
general.
However, I fear that the USCF-GamesParlor alliance will fail at some
future date. USCF is investing on the order of $100,000/year into
this
project. GamesParlor is investing even more into their planned
network of
worldwide servers, of which USCL is the first (and only one in operation
so far). Certainly, GamesParlor has access to a pot of gold
somewhere
which allows it to fund its venture. When this pot of gold runs out,
what
happens? If USCL is profitable, then it continues. If USCL
continues as
it does today, it dies and leaves the USCF hanging.
Dear Captain of the USCF Titanic, do you know where the lifeboats are?
Michael Aigner
Alternate Delegate, CA-N
Editor's comment: Several USCF Boards as well as a financial workshop have declared it to be vital that USCF provide free online play to its members. Now that the federation has finally achieved this long sought after goal, it finds that the benefits are probably not worth the costs. USCF leaders should have the flexibility to say "OK, maybe we were wrong," and abandon this dubious enterprise before the losses mount still higher.
Is it surprising that having free online play as a member benefit has had little or no effect on USCF's membership totals? Not really, when you consider that:
1) ICC is far more popular than USCL, and many USCF members who are serious about online chess would rather pay $4/month to play on ICC than play free on USCL.
2) Online players who don't care about the other benefits of USCF membership are far more likely to pay $49/year for ICC, the leader in its field, than $32 for a USCF internet membership to play on US ChessLive. The difference is less than $1.50 per month.
3) Players without sufficient interest or money to pay for ICC can play free on FICS or various new servers. Additional online play startups are likely to continue to enter the marketplace, offering free play in an attempt to gain market share. Even if a USCF member prefers USCL to the free alternatives, the fact that other free services exist means that the USCL free privilege is not likely to be of great value to the member.